中国货币政策利率传导效率研究:2008-2017

随着利率市场化进程的不断推进以及商业银行利率定价机制的发展,中国货币政策利率的传导效率也不断提高。基于2008年1月-2017年6月的宏观时间序列数据和微观调研数据,本文检验了中国货币政策利率对银行贷款利率的传导效率。总体而言,基准利率是影响金融机构贷款加权平均利率的主要因素。分时间段看,贷款利率浮动限制放开之后,货币市场利率对金融机构贷款利率的传导效率显著提升;基准利率对金融机构贷款利率的影响略有下降,但仍然占主导。对商业银行贷款利率定价的微观机制进行探讨后,本文发现贷款利率定价机制的变化是中国利率传导效率出现变化的主要原因。进一步的分析表明,资金来源和市场利率波动均是影响货币市场利率传导效率的重要因素。最后,本文就如何提高货币政策利率传导效率提出了政策建议。本文研究对完善价格型货币政策体系以及中国货币政策框架转型具有重要的实践意义。     

Engineering the Financialization of Urban Entrpreneurialism: The JESSICA Urban Development Initiative in the European Union

Urban entrepreneurialism and neoliberal urban governance are assuming new forms under finance‐dominated accumulation. We examine and contribute to theorizing the mechanisms through which urban governance is financialized, taking as a case study JESSICA, one of the European Union's initiatives to implement an ‘urban sensitive’ policy for sustainable and integrated development. Like other initiatives promoting financialization, JESSICA deploys the logic of finance to select and fund urban social initiatives and development projects on the basis of their potential return on investment (ROI). Understanding this process requires placing questions of political economy—how urban governance is shaped by the broader political‐economic context—with questions of governmentality—how stakeholders are enrolled in and come to take for granted new governance initiatives. Following the multi‐scalar institutional infrastructure is crucial to understanding how this works. Taking a relational multi‐scalar approach, we trace how changes at the supranational scale filter down to shape urban policy selection and performance in Sofia, Bulgaria, where we document how ROI calculations conflict with social welfare priorities. Contrasts between the trajectory of financialization of urban governance in the European Union and the United States demonstrate how this is geographically variegated, shaped by the broader context/conjuncture within which such financialization is embedded.     

创新生态系统视角下价值共创如何影响企业创新绩效——一个有调节的中介模型

以创新生态系统为视角，引入创新资源互动与生态系统规范机制为中介变量和调节变量，探究价值共创如何影响企业创新绩效。基于307家企业样本数据，运用结构方程模型、Bootstrap和层级回归方法对数据进行分析。研究发现：创新生态系统中，价值共创不完全直接影响企业创新绩效；创新资源互动部分中介价值共创对企业创新绩效的影响；生态系统规范机制部分正向调节价值共创对创新资源互动的影响。最后提出，创新生态系统调控方与企业要差异化地制定提升创新绩效的实施方案，营造活跃的创新资源互动氛围，形成并完善系统内生态规范机制。     

中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新效率稳定性及影响因素研究

在全面实施创新驱动发展战略的时代背景下，揭示中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新效率稳定性，测度相关因素的影响强度与方向，对揭示中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新规律，制定其发展策略具有重要指导意义。聚焦中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新效率稳定性及影响因素，采用DEA-Malmquist指数方法和Tobit回归模型进行实证研究，结果表明，中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新效率存在一定波动性，且各细分行业技术创新效率内部稳定性较差，产业自主技术创新效率整体稳定性不高；自主技术创新投入因素和环境影响因素对产业自主技术创新效率的影响具有较高的异质性，其中创新资金投入和人力资源投入对自主技术创新综合效率、纯技术效率及规模效率具有正向影响，而新产品开发投入和企业规模对自主技术创新综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率的影响具有异质性，政策因素与市场因素分别具有显著和非显著负向影响，外源性创新因素具有显著正向影响，且影响强度较大。在此基础上，提出调整政府对高端装备制造业创新支持模式、加强外源性创新与智力引进等策略建议。     

基于技术轨道的制造企业服务化机理研究

基于技术轨道理论与制造企业服务化间的关系，认为技术轨道对制造企业服务化的影响机理包括3类：驱动机理、拉动机理和差异化机理。制造企业服务化转型内在机理是技术轨道驱动下投入服务化、企业边界变化以及用户需求、产出、政策拉动下与技术轨道的协同演化过程，且通过技术轨道形成服务化转型差异。制造企业对自身技术轨道的识别有利于确定发展所需主要技术来源及技术演化轨迹，把握实现服务化的关键机理。     

Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion

Cap-and-trade programs such as the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) expose firms to considerable risks, to which the firms can respond with hedging. We develop an intertemporal stochastic equilibrium model to analyze the implications of hedging by risk-averse firms. We show that the resulting time-varying risk premium depends on the size of the permit bank. Applying the model to the EU ETS, we find that hedging can lead to a U-shaped price path, because prices initially fall due to negative risk premiums and then rise as the hedging demand declines. The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) reduces the permit bank and thus, increases the hedging value of the permits. This offers an explanation for the recent price hike, but also implies that prices may decline in the future due to more negative risk premiums. In addition, we find higher permit cancellations through the MSR than previous analyses, which do not account for hedging.     

Family and sex-specific U.S. immigration from Europe, 1870–1910: A panel data study of rates and composition

This paper develops and estimates models of family and sex-specific emigration, as well as the sex composition of this emigration, from 12 European source countries to the U.S. for the period 1870–1910. The models are based on the distinction between economic migrants (males, single females, and some married females) and tied or trailing migrants (females) and are estimated with panel data, including data that relate to the occupational/industrial structure of male and female economic activity in source countries. Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable estimates suggest that although both males and females responded to labor-market signals, males were more responsive than females to per capita GDP differences. Moreover, compared to the rest of Europe, Ireland, and Scandinavia were the sources of many young, single male, and female migrants, who responded strongly to gaps in economic opportunities. In fact, much of the European response to such gaps appears to be due to migrants from Ireland and Scandinavia. Females tended to originate in English-speaking countries and countries that were agriculturally oriented. Service and manufacturing jobs in source countries discouraged the migration of females relative to males. Males tended to follow recent migrants more than females, but females responded more to long-term influences as measured by stocks of migrants from their source countries who had previously settled in the U.S. Countries with high birth rates had relatively fewer female emigrants, whereas those with high rates of natural increase 20 years earlier experienced relatively more male emigration. Intact families, other family members (including family-strategy male migrants and trailing female migrants), and single males and females responded strongly to economic incentives, but the singles were most responsive followed by family-strategy males.     

论本币升值对国内物价的影响路径

本币升值可通过实体经济、虚拟经济以及货币政策三个途径影响一国的国内价格;本币升值通过国内物价影响经济稳定存在一个正反馈机制;从短期来看,人民币升值不仅不能抑制国内物价上涨,还可能推动国内物价的上涨。     

金融组织强制性信息披露问题研究

由于规模经济的原因,作为信息劣势方——投资者公共利益代表者的政府必然成为强制性信忠披露的主体。政府按照参与约束原则和激励相容原则进行机制设计甄别金融组织,引导其确定合理的信忠披露边界,形成分离均衡,金融市场上的非对称信息转变为对称信息。但政府强制金融组织进行信息披露时,应尊重其利益追求和考虑金融市场发育程度等。     

上海松江出口加工区发展战略及海关监管研究

出口加工区这种模式为我国的改革开放与经济发展做出了不可替代的、具有重要战略意义的积极贡献。本文以上海松江出口加工区为例,对出口加工区的运行机制进行了分析,并指出在这样的运行机制下,无论对于企业,还是地方经济都是非常有益的。希望本文的分析和探索能够给国内正在快速发展中的出口加工区提供一些有益的参考。